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P?und rebounds ag?inst the euro as economic growth in th? eurozone i? slower
t??n expected
By ??is Is Money Reporter
Updated: 13:50 GMT, 15 ?ay 2014
e-mail
1
?iew
comments
Th? eur? fell b?ck against th? p?und t?day
after hopes that th? eurozone’s recovery had gained som? momentum wer? dashed as
first quarter economic grtowth in tthe single currency ?rea proved slower t??n expected.
?he eurozone economy grew ?y 0.2 per cent in thee
fi??t t?ree m?nths ?f thyis yeaar compared to the preevious quarterr – t?e fourth consecutive quarter ?f
growth but mu?h lower than that which many econokists had expected.
??e news ?ent European stock maarkets lower ?nd ad?ed m?re pressure
?n t?? European Central Bank (ECB) t? ease its monetary
policy ne?t month.
Pressure: ECB president Mario Dragvhi ?? expeced t? cut interest rates in ?une in a bid to boost the eurozone
economy
?ast week, ECB president Mario Draghi said t?e central bank
was ready t? t?ke action and ease monetary policy ne?t month to
support thee flagging eurozone economy.
?n currency markets, the p??nd rebounded ?gainst t?e euro t? €1.23 hav?ng losing ground ye?terday, but fell slightly a?ainst
t?e dolla? tto $1,675 as ?ecent strength abated after the Bank off
England Wednesday that said it was ?n no rush to raise inte?est rates.
?ore…
There’s no rush t? raise int?rest rates, say? Bank
of England, ?s it says now Britain need? to win th? economic ?orld Cup
Unemployment drops t?o lowewst level f?r ove? 5 ?ears a? number oof people ?n wor?
boosted by rise of se?f-employed
Foreign exchangge rates: ?atest charts
Howar Archer, chief European ?nd UK economist at IHS Global Insight said t?at following ?r Draghi’s comments lst w?ek, hee expected thhe bank t? follow throuh ?nd
act at itts ?une policy meeting ?? cutting interest rates ?ut nnot by pumping mo?e money into
t?e economy.
?r Archer said: ‘?hile thhe ECB ?ill likely retain the ?iew t??t
moderate recovery ?s developing, the disappointing first quarter GDP performance increases
t?e risk thast demand ?ill not ?e strong enough to prevent inflation remaining ?elow
1.0 peer cent f?r a prolonged period.’
?ound vs ?uro: T?e ?ound ?as got stronger ov?r the past year as
the UK economic recovery has gained momentum
‘G?ven that ?ne of iits main aims ?s to weaken the euro, we now think tht the ECB i? mo?? l?kely than not to cut its refinancing rate,’ ?e s?i?, adding:
‘?t is also vsry possible that the ECB will tak? som? liquidity measures ?n June gi??n latest data sho?ing ongoing falling
lending tto businesses.
‘?owever, we bel?eve that the ECB is ?t?ll som? considerable ?ay off undertaking quantitative easing.’
Torben Kaaber, chief execcutive ?f Saxo Capital Markets, ?aid t?at a stimulus package which w?ll ?nclude interest
rate cuts m?y be to? little, tooo late.
H? said: ‘Sterling ?emains a safe haven ?espite a minor shock f?llowing yesterd?y’s BoE Inflation Report w?th ?nterest rates now expected to be k?pt lower f?r longer.
‘However, a stable inflation outlook coupled with falling unemployment m??ns
th?t the UK and th? sterling remainn on a positive ?ourse.
‘Hav?ng ssaid this, relative to t?e ?ollar, our outlook iis f?r stwrling to? fa?l to $1.55 b? the end of the ?ear
as the deficit ?n the UK loojs set to widen further.’
Growth in the eurozone ?as led by strong expansion ?n Germany,
wh?r? economy grew by 0.8 ?er cent on th? previous quarter, ?nd a third successive quarter of growth in Spain,
wh?re GDP growth ?as 0.4 per cent.
Europe’s second ?nd t?ird biggest economies France ?nd
Italy, h?wever, ?idn’t perform ?ell, as France’s economy stagjated
?nd Italy’? economy contracted ?y 0.1 per cent.
Mr Archer s???: ‘A combination ?f factors ?ill hopefullly all?w Eurozone economic activity tto
gradually firm ?ver t?e ?oming months. Even s?, we
expect Eurozone GDP growth t? b? limited to 1.1 ?er ?ent
in 2014, improving t? 1.6 per cent iin 2015.’
And ?e added: ‘?evertheless, t?e Eurozone w?ll by no means h??e it easy ov?r the ?oming mont?s as a number of
si?nificant growth constraints ?emain.
‘?urthermore, t?e performances of the French and Italian economies ?n th? f?rst quarter reinforce concerns ???r their outlooks and fuels suspicion t?at th?y wilol
struggle too grow ?y any more than 0.5 per cent this yea?.
‘It als? highlights t?e pressing need in both countries
to enact meaningful structural reforms.’
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